Manager, New Release Forecasting

Posting Job Description

Warner Home Video Inc. seeks a Manager, Forecasting New Rel. for the Sales Planning & Analysis department. Forecasting: Determine the appropriate forecasting method, predictor variable and statistical model validation techniques for Theatrical New Release titles. Provide NR POS, Shipment and Returns Forecasts for all National Accounts by budgeted title. Provide replenishment forecasts (leads) to Operations on all NR titles. Determine the appropriate forecasting method and forecast validation technique. Communicate NR Forecast results to Account Executives, Director of Sales Forecasting and WHV Executive Management. Partner with Account Executives to achieve agreement on the ultimate forecast. Ensure company goals are consistent with departmental forecast. Develop Decay Curves for NR titles at daily through weekly level by POS Nat. Account Data / Project Management: Create and maintain hybrid data sets (Teradata & Local, Bus. Obj., MSI, Access, VBA) for WHV and competitive (Nielsen) NR titles. Work with IT in defining key metrics for causal model development. Work with Theatrical Sales Communication to ensure accuracy in release dates, available titles/products and goals by National Account . NR Analysis: Develop single to multi-disc analytics, including non-parametric forecasting algorithms. Design automated sensitivity analyses of forecasting processes, including model selection and testing. Build logic to limit large differences in forecast outputs. Define and execute NR variance reports, including Post Event Analyses and Score Cards. Research major variances.

Requirements


BA/BS degree in Stats/Math/Econ/ Business, MS preferred. 5+ years experience in business analysis required. Must have experience setting up and maintaining sales related databases.
Must have experience extracting & segmenting data to facilitate analysis. Must have a high degree of proficiency with business databases, SQL, Excel, Access and PowerPoint. Must have expert understanding of retail principles & retail operations. Must have strong/expert knowledge of statistical methods and analytical techniques. Must be able to analyze volumes of data to determine business implications and make actionable recommendations. Must be able to present findings confidently to senior management & customers. Must have strong interpersonal & communication skills. Must be extremely organized & detail oriented. Must have ability to work in fast paced & high volume work environment, assess & solve problems, and handle multiple tasks while maintaining accuracy.