4% rise in birth rate is biggest in 25 years

The largest jump in the birth rate for a quarter of a century was recorded in England and Wales last year, according to figures yesterday from the Office for National Statistics.

The number of babies born in 2003 increased by more than 4% to 621,469, bucking the long-term trend of declining fertility that has become established since the mid-1960s.

Extrapolating from these figures, government statisticians said the average woman could be expected to give birth to 1.73 babies during her child-bearing years. This national fertility rate was 4.7% higher than a year ago - the largest annual rise since 1979.

Demographers at the ONS said it was too soon to know whether last year's increase was a statistical blip or the start of a new trend. The number of live births increased in 2002 for the first time in eight years, but by only 0.25%.

"There might be some catching up being done by women who postponed having babies during the last few years," a spokesman said.

Fertility was rising fastest among women in their late 30s who delayed their childbearing while establishing their careers. But the last big leap in fertility in the late 1970s was followed by a further decline in the 1980s, he said.

Fertility peaked in 1964 when the average woman was estimated to have 2.93 children in her childbearing years. It reached a low point of 1.64 in 2001 - far below the average of 2.1 children per woman that would be needed for the population to replace itself without having to rely on immigration.

The average age of women at the birth of their first child was 27.4 in 2003, compared with 25.7 in 1991.

The proportion of babies born outside marriage also continued its upward trend, increasing from 40.6% in 2002 to 41.4% in 2003 - almost 10% higher than the level it was 10 years ago.