Breast cancer diagnoses hit all-time high but death rates fall

Breast cancer diagnoses are at an all-time UK high of more than 40,000 a year, and look unlikely to stop rising soon.

The reasons for the climb were unclear, said Cancer Research UK, which published the figures yesterday, though the success of screening had undoubtedly played a part.

Many more cancers are being detected, some at a very early stage, enabling them to be more easily treated. Three out of four women with breast cancer now survive for five years or more.

A few critics argue, however, that some cancers are needlessly identified and treated, causing anxiety for women. A prominent critic is Michael Baum, professor of surgery at University College London, who argues that some of the very early-stage cancerous cells discovered through screening would probably not develop into damaging disease in the patient's lifetime.

The good news was that death rates were down significantly, Cancer Research UK said. In 2001, 13,000 women died of breast cancer, a drop of 21% over 10 years. Treatments have improved, with the drug Tamoxifen prolonging many lives.

"The reasons behind the increase in incidence are more complex, and we're just beginning to understand the risk factors," said Jack Cuzick, head of the charity's epidemiology department.

"The levels of the female hormone oestrogen seem to be important, but these levels depend on a number of other variables.

"We know that obesity in post-menopausal women is a risk factor and that it can raise the levels of oestrogen. We also know that levels of obesity have been rising steadily in the past decade, and this may be contributing to the upward trend."

Many factors were difficult or impossible to control, he said.

Some are genetic. Having a close relative with the disease, early onset of menstruation, and late menopause all increase the statistical chances of breast cancer.

Work was under way to identify more of these risk factors, said Cancer Research UK's clinical director, Robert Souhami.

"Knowing who is at risk and why is the first step towards prevention."

Delyth Morgan, chief executive of the charity Breakthrough Breast Cancer, expressed concern at the new figures. "That breast cancer is still on the increase is a matter of huge concern for all women," she said. She called for more money to be spent on research.

Another charity, CancerBACUP, pointed to a shortage of NHS staff and equipment and long waits for scans and radiotherapy, in spite of government investment.