Falling birth rate threatens closure of primary schools

Schools are facing closure because of falling pupil numbers, driven by the shrinking birth rate among young British women.

The consequences of social change in the 'Bridget Jones' generation are now being felt in the playground, with around 50,000 fewer children expected to enter primary school every year from now until 2007 - creating a glut of surplus places.

Headteachers now face 'some very difficult choices', said a source at the Department for Education and Skills. It is not clear how many will be affected, but consultations over mergers and closures are being launched across the country.

The last time pupil rolls fell so drastically during the Seventies and Eighties, up to 800 schools eventually closed.

'It's a significant problem. Family size has been declining as well so you don't get the six or seven-kid families that balance things out,' said Professor Ted Wragg, a leading education expert at the University of Exeter. 'People are having their families later, and you can't say there will be another peak along every 16 or 17 years.'

School closures are an emotive issue, with parents of pupils already enrolled fearful of the upheaval as they switch to unfamiliar environments or face longer journeys. In a controversial twist, the shake-up could also create new opportunities for the private sector to take over the running of state schools, as under new legislation the leadership of new schools created from mergers must now be open to competition.

Ministers hope the demographic blow can be softened with plans for so-called 'extended schools' - childcare clubs, afterschool sports and adult learning on school sites once the school day is over - offering dwindling schools another income stream.

Ruth Kelly, the Education Secretary, will tomorrow relaunch plans for extended schools - which will be open from dawn to dusk by 2006 - with children offered activities such as rock climbing and dance.

But the extended schools programme will not be able to shield the hundreds of vulnerable primaries. By 2008, the number of primaries with a substantial number of surplus places will have increased fivefold unless radical action is taken, according to research for the DFES.

In Cornwall, the director of the local education authority recently warned some small schools would have no four-year-olds at all to receive this autumn. In Greater Manchester there are now more than 100 primary schools with more than one place in four empty. In Cardiff almost one in three places are now surplus: in Leeds the council is projecting more than 9,000 more places than children.

The problem was raised with Tony Blair last week by the new Tory backbencher David Davies, citing the threatened closure of Ponthir school in his Monmouthshire constituency - a small rural school topping local league tables.

'It's a long way for the parents to take quite young kids if they can't go to school there,' he said.

'There's no logical reason for doing it. Where these schools are supported by parents, and there's no problem with the budget or standard for education, there's no excuse for closing them.'

Campaigners argue councils are liable to close schools whose pupils can most easily be redistributed - such as those in the middle of cities with others nearby- even if they are popular and thriving.

Labour MP Shona McIsaac, who is fighting the threatened closure of three primaries and the merger of more in her Cleethorpes constituency, argues the cutbacks pose a serious threat. 'They are earmarking for closure some of the best performing schools, with no surplus places,' she said. 'There is absolute outrage.'

But falling rolls could still have an upside for some areas, easing pressure on class sizes - and, theoretically, meaning narrow catchment areas for highly desirable schools expand.

Wragg warned that too many closures would be a mistake given the risk of the birthrate rising in future.

'We have got to learn lessons from last time: what goes down must come up in population terms,' he said.