HIV rates will almost double by 2005

The number of people living with diagnosed HIV is set to rise by almost 50% by 2005, public health officials warned today. The latest UK-wide projections show the numbers living with diagnosed HIV (human immunodeficiency virus) are predicted to increase from 23,000 in 2000 to 34,000 by 2005, an increase of 47%.

The number of cases of HIV diagnosed each year reached a new high in 2001, with 3,342 new diagnoses. This represents a 17% rise on figures for 2000.

Dr Barry Evans, head of the HIV and STI division at the public health laboratory service (PHLS) communicable disease surveillance centre, said he expected this total to rise to "well over 4,000" as more infections were reported.

Although gay and bisexual men remain the biggest risk group overall, this is the third year in a row where the number of heterosexual diagnoses has exceeded diagnoses in gay men, Dr Evans said.

"There is a very worrying trend here. There is no doubt that new infections are occurring for a disease which we know how to prevent but for which we have no cure. The main message from these figures is that HIV is not going away," he added.

HIV infection picked up abroad is thought to account for three-quarters of the new cases of HIV, both in people who have gone to live or work abroad and those who have come to live in the UK from countries of higher prevalence.

Experts say the best way of tackling HIV is by promoting the "safer sex" message and using condoms. Increased HIV testing among heterosexual people would also help prevent the needless infection of others.

A PHLS spokesman said latest estimates suggest there were 33,500 people living with HIV at the end of the year 2000, just under a third of whom were undiagnosed.

Nick Partridge, chief executive of the Terrence Higgins Trust warned: "It is a common misconception that HIV is no longer a problem in the UK, and once again, the figures demonstrate that this is patently untrue. Yet funding for vital work in helping to prevent HIV transmission is now threatened under plans to move money for HIV prevention into mainstream healthcare budgets.

"Awareness of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections (STIs) is at an all-time low in the UK. Rates of gonorrhoea, syphilis and chlamydia amongst young people have all more than doubled since 1995, and 40% of 11-year-olds have never even heard of HIV."

Three regions of the UK have reported rates of HIV that are higher in 2001 than they were in 2000.

In Trent the increase is 52% (from 110 to 168). In the eastern regions the increase is 31% (from 179 to 235) and the south-east has seen a 12% rise (from 358 to 402).

The incidence of HIV has also risen slightly in Wales, from 44 cases to 49.

Elsewhere, the numbers of diagnoses for 2001 are currently less than for 2000, but, on the evidence of delayed reports received in 2001, this is likely to alter as further reports are received in 2002.