Loss and retention

The massive differences in drop-out rates between universities are a running sore in the higher education sector. For years universities and colleges resisted informed debate about the issue despite its importance to students - and taxpayers. For the past three years the higher education funding councils have used a complex projection method to compare institutions, giving the chances of graduating for a student starting in a given year.

For a few institutions the chances of dropping out are alarmingly high - at the University of North London less than half the intake is expected to graduate, with 45% leaving with no qualification or a transfer to another institution.

In many cases it is the institutions taking risks in student recruitment by admitting mature students and those without traditional A-levels or Highers that inevitably have the highest drop-out rates. Their vice-chancellors complain bitterly about being pilloried for trying to pursue the government's policy of widening participation.

But that cannot be said of the School of Oriental and African Studies, which recruits from traditional, well-qualified school leavers.

This year, Hefce has introduced a second, simpler method alongside this projection - the rate of progress into the second year of a degree. Most universities are agreed that the first year of a course is crucial - if students make it through to the second year their chances of success are good.

A top 20 of the worst performers based on Hefce projections throws up many of the same names as the institutions with the worst first-year drop-out rates - indicating these universities and colleges have a real problem.

The funding council explains the first method. "The projection can be viewed as a prediction of the final outcomes of a group of students starting at an institution, if we assume that the progression paths in future will be the same as those currently taking place. This assumes, for example, that if 85% of students who were in year two of their programme of study in 1999/2000 moved into year three of the programme of study in 2000/2001, then the same proportion will move from year two to year three in the following years. This assumption, that the present is a guide to the future, may not always hold true, but it does allow us to produce a summary of the present movements of students as a set of eventual outcomes. We can show what proportion of students are projected to obtain a degree, leave the institution but transfer into HE elsewhere, or leave the institution without any qualification and without moving into HE elsewhere."

Professor Colin Bundy, director of Soas, said the school had been very conscious of its retention rate and had been taking steps to remedy the situation. "It may reflect the difficulty in learning foreign languages. Anecdotally there is evidence that kids think they will come here and study Arabic, Urdu or Chinese, but when they get here they find it very daunting." A senior curriculum adviser had been appointed and would be focusing on reviewing the first-year curriculum, added Professor Bundy.

Projected non-completion rate - percentage:


University of North London *45
Trinity College of Music39
University of Central Lancashire 33
University of East London33
University of Paisley31
Bolton Institute of Higher Education30
London Guildhall University30
Swansea Institute of Higher Education30
University College Northampton29
School of Oriental and African Studies29
Thames Valley University29
Glasgow Caledonian University29
South Bank University28
University of Sunderland28
Anglia Polytechnic University27
University of Greenwich26
University of Luton26
University of Wales, Lampeter26
University of Wales College, Newport26
North East Wales Institute26


Percentage continuing after first year:


RCN Institute21
University of North London70
Dartington College of Arts72
University of East London76
School of Oriental and African Studies77
Northern College of Education77
Thames Valley University78
University of Paisley78
Bolton Institute of Higher Education79
University College Northampton79
Glasgow Caledonian University79
University of Central Lancashire80
University of Greenwich80
South Bank University80
University of Westminster80
University of Wales, Lampeter80
Trinity College of Music81
Swansea Institute of Higher Education81
Trinity College Carmarthen81
Liverpool Hope University College82
London Guildhall University82
University of Glamorgan82