Michael Howard less popular than Duncan Smith or Foot

The following correction was printed in the Observer's For the record, column, Sunday February 6 2005

This article's headline does not accurately reflect the story beneath it. As the text noted, Howard's standing is currently two points above Michael Foot in 1983 and equal to Iain Duncan Smith's a month before Howard replaced him as leader.




There's more gloom for Michael Howard, the Conservative leader, in this month's MORI poll, carried out exclusively for The Observer just days ago.

But there is bad news for Tony Blair too, as the poll shows that the electorate would now prefer Gordon Brown to be Prime Minister in his place, and that many more people trust the Chancellor than him.

Eight or nine weeks from now, we will be in the thick of the election. MORI's latest findings show a six-point lead for Labour over the Tories - 38 per cent to 32 per cent - with the Liberal Democrats on 22 per cent, not remotely within striking distance of dislodging the Conservatives as the official Opposition.

A month ago, the Lib Dems were on 26 per cent, with some pundits hinting at a breakthrough that now looks highly unlikely.

Based on these figures - a 1.7 per cent swing from Labour to the Conservatives - Labour would lose between 25 and 30 seats, with the Tories gaining fewer than 10 and the Lib Dems picking up a handful That would give Labour a third landslide and a majority of between 120 and 130.

Howard's satisfaction rating has sunk to a new low. Just 22 per cent are satisfied with his performance as Leader of the Opposition, lower than John Major's rating as Prime Minister in January 1997 just before Blair's election triumph.

The Tory leader is two points above Michael Foot in January 1983 before Margaret Thatcher's 143-seat victory that year and 12 points behind where Neil Kinnock was when he lost to Major in 1992.

He also rates below William Hague and as badly as Iain Duncan Smith the month before he was replaced by Howard.

And it gets worse. As well as having the Tories becalmed for nearly a year on ratings in the low thirties and reaching new depths in his satisfaction ratings, when voters were asked who would make the best Prime Minister, Howard ties with the Lib Dem leader Charles Kennedy on 17 per cent. Blair's rating is more than double that, at 39 per cent.

If that's not enough the Conservative leader is trusted by fewer people than Tony Blair, 28 per cent to 32 per cent, and nearly half the electorate - 47 per cent - say they think he is untrustworthy.

Still, it's not all good news for the Prime Minister either. More than half the public, 57 per cent, now say he is untrustworthy and only 32 per cent say they can trust him, making his 'trust' rating minus 25.

His Chancellor has a net score of plus 19. Exactly half of those surveyed say they consider him to be trustworthy, while 31 percent say he is not.

MORI interviewed a representative sample of 1,051 adults at 195 sampling points across Great Britain on 20-24 January 2005. Data were weighted to match the profile of the population.

Further details: www.mori.com

· Robert Worcester is the chairman of MORI