Murder rate declines but Home Office battles against belief that things are getting worse

The murder rate for England and Wales is showing its first sustained fall since the 1960s, according to the annual crime figures published today. A total of 765 people were killed, including the 52 victims of the July 7 bombings, in the 12 months to April 2006.

This is the third successive year that homicides in England and Wales fell and are down from a peak of 1,047 in 2002 which included the murders committed by Harold Shipman.

One of the most dramatic falls in the last 12 months is in the number of fatal shootings which have fallen from 77 to 46 largely as a result of targeted police operations.

Overall crime levels remain stable with a 1% rise recorded by the authoritative British Crime Survey and a 1% fall recorded on the separate police figures which also recorded a 2% overall rise in violent crime.

The biggest falls in crime have continued to be in domestic burglary - down a further 3% according to the British Crime Survey - and car crime down a further 8%. The average home is now likely to be burgled once every 50 years compared with once every 25 years in 1995.

A home with locks fitted to windows and doors is 10 times less likely to be burgled than one which has not been secured.

The Home Office says that despite the temptation to assume that things are always getting worse, crime in England and Wales actually peaked in 1995 and has now fallen by 44% in the last 10 years.

"Despite the number of crimes estimated by the British Crime Survey falling in recent years, comparatively high proportions of people still believe the crime rate to have risen. This is not true," said Jon Simmons, head of Home Office research and statistics who put part of the problem down to media reporting.

"Readers of national tabloids were around twice as likely [39%] as those who read national broadsheets [19%] to think that the national crime rate has increased 'a lot' in the previous year," he said.

Nevertheless, despite Tony Blair's repeated claims that the public has lost confidence in the criminal justice system the BCS indicators show that the level of public fear of crime has fallen steadily since the 1990s and only 13% of households say they are worried about burglary or car crime.

Confidence in the criminal justice system also continues to improve although many still believe the rights of the accused are respected too much. The rises in robberies and drug crime are likely to fuel that public perception.

The increase in robbery is real and is the first rise since Tony Blair's street crime initiative used all the political weight of Downing Street to bring down the 121,000 robberies committed in 2001.

As cash for the street crime initiative ran out so the number of robberies started to rise last year and is now up from 90,747 to 98,204. Worryingly, there appears to have been a 10% rise in armed robberies with guns used in 4,036 incidents.

The Metropolitan police said yesterday most of the rise in street crime took place in 10 London boroughs and was mostly youths attacking other youths over mobile phones and MP3 players. Two-thirds of those arrested and half the victims were under 17. "This problem is cyclical - it is always around. The minute we let up we know it comes back to us. The way that robbery manifests itself constantly changes and we do have to get ahead of it," said Commander Simon Foy of Scotland Yard.

Home Office researchers also advised caution over the 23% rise recorded in drug offences, saying it did not represent an increase in the use of cannabis but a change in policing.

A total of 119,922 offences for cannabis possession were dealt with by the police during the last year, with the increase mostly involving formal warnings for those who in the past were let off with an informal caution. The Home Office said there was no evidence reclassification of cannabis has led to a rise in use of the drug. "The BCS shows that crime is stabilising after long periods of reduction," said Mr Simmons. "Crime peaked in 1995 and since then has been falling by 44% overall, meaning each year there are 8.4 million fewer crimes committed against the general public than ... 10 years ago."

Reid's reforms

John Reid yesterday outlined the reforms he hopes will make the Home Office "fit for purpose", 75 days after he took control of a department that has been embroiled in a series of scandals. These are the main points:

· Purge of top management team with 15 directors moved, one in four of total

· 250 most senior civil servants to undergo skills assessment for operational delivery and project management

· Headquarters staff to be cut by 2,700 by 2008 and a further 600 by 2010, including halving the size of the National Offender Management Service headquarters

· The £115m saved by reducing headquarters staffing to 5,900 to be invested in frontline services

· Immigration and nationality directorate to become arm's-length executive agency

· New contract between ministers and civil servants clarifying responsibilities for policy, delivery and management

· New strategic policy function advising ministers, with operational decisions devolved to immigration, prison, identity and passport services

· Simplified performance targets for policing, crime and drugs