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It is no longer a question of whether Alan Greenspan will cut American interest rates, but when and by how much. There were already signs from the weekend's deep-throat stories published in the Washington Post and the Wall Street Journal that someone at the Federal Reserve was putting the message around that a rate cut was in the offing. Yesterday's news that American consumer confidence had fallen off a cliff in September means it is a stone-cold certainty.
Thus far, the argument against the Federal Reserve moving has been the need for Greenspan to keep his powder dry. But, as the Japanese found to their cost, there is not much point having a good stock of powder if the economy is already in recession and prices are falling. The estimate of US growth in the third quarter, due out tomorrow, is likely to flatter to deceive: far more attention should be paid to the jobless data, a day later.
If the consumer confidence figures are anything to go by, they are likely to be dreadful. The relatively muted response by Wall Street to the drop in consumer sentiment was a sure sign that it expects Greenspan to cut rates next week, rather than wait a month.
He is right to do so - even though any help that cheaper borrowing brings to the markets may be modest and short-lived. American exports are being held back by a dollar that is still far too strong - the over-investment of the 1990s is keeping the lid on capital expenditure. If the consumer stops spending, the US will be on course for a hard landing. Delay from Greenspan will make it all the harder.
Floral floor
Being denied fresh flowers at your desk may seem a small corporate price to pay in these testing times. But in the particular world of Swiss banking, it amounts to a painful acknowledgement of how bad things really are.
According to a leaked memo, Oswald Gruebel, head of Credit Suisse's financial services unit - which includes its private banking business and troubled insurance operations - has made a clear ruling on the issue. Aside from the floral measure, senior executives are being asked to pay travel expenses out of their own pocket, reduce use of limousines and spend no more than £45 a head on staff Christmas parties.
Mr Gruebel, who is soon to become joint chief executive of the wider CS group, warns his senior colleagues that they need to lead from the top. The institution wants to introduce a cost-cutting ethos, no less, with a "powerful effect" on all employees. This is just the latest evidence of the pain being felt in financial services. From florists in Zurich to limo drivers in Manhattan, the knock-on effects are as obvious as they are inevitable. We're approaching bonus season in the City of London, and it will probably be the thinnest in a generation. For London's economy and beyond, the fallout will be unavoidable.
Word to the wise
We should not be too surprised with this week's news that the financial services authority has decided to abandon its move to force independent financial advisers to charge fees rather than taking commission for advice.
The industry had gone quite potty, fearing that its main revenue stream would evaporate overnight, putting thousands of advisers out of work and actually reducing the amount of financial advice available to the public.
In retrospect, the FSA got its timing badly wrong. The IFAs, and the personal finance industry in general, have spent the last two years in deep recession, unable to flog anything as markets tumbled and investors fled.
Yet the deep problems in this industry, with its unacceptably opaque practices, its extreme conflicts of interest and the generally high levels of individual banditry, have not gone away.
One of the core criticisms of the FSA's proposals rested on the fact that IFAs typically earn up to £300 an hour for complex advice. Because the bill for a problematic pension issue might soar to £3,000 or more, clients would balk at the bill and IFAs would go to the wall.
But the current system, with its mix of huge commissions and obscure kickbacks where fees are wholly optional, does not get rid of that £3,000 bill. It is simply hidden in the small print.
Sadly, the FSA's compromise reforms are too soft.
BP beating
If BP was, for example, a telecoms company or a second rate food retailer, its chief executive, Lord Browne, would be out on his ear by now.
Executives are simply not allowed to put out three warnings in two months; it gives the impression that the management does not know what is going on in the business.
Lord Browne, of course, has a healthy account when it comes to credibility in the City. He is not about to go overdrawn. But BP got ahead of itself, projecting a level of growth in production that was unachievable. And clearly, in the chase for new assets, the company clearly took its eye off older, more established areas.
Lord Browne may be the most admired businessman in Europe - if not the world, after Jack Welch's local difficulties post-General Electric. But he'll have to watch his step, nevertheless.
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