Upbeat CBI fuels rate rise talk

The City was unanimous last night in predicting a rise in interest rates next week after an upbeat survey of manufacturing from the Confederation of British Industry appeared to remove the last possible obstacle to dearer borrowing.

Dealers said the unexpectedly buoyant performance of what has been the weakest sector of the economy would trigger a quarter-point rise in base rates to 4% when the Bank of England's monetary policy committee convenes next week.

The CBI said its quarterly industrial trends survey marked a clear turning point, with the strongest growth in order books for over seven years, the sharpest jump in output for over eight years and a slowdown in the rate of job losses.

Amid optimism that the trend will continue, the employers' organisation said it would not protest should the MPC tighten policy next week, though it would oppose the half-point rise favoured by some in the financial markets.

Ian McCafferty, the CBI's chief economic adviser, said: "The manufacturing sector is at last on a path to recovery, and firms clearly believe the worst is behind them.

Trading conditions have improved across the board, with orders and output accelerating sharply and uncertainty diminishing.

The recovery now depends on the positive expectations for the coming quarter being realised, so manufacturers will be hoping that the Bank of England continues its gradualist approach to raising interest rates."

Mr McCafferty added that the global pick-up meant export orders were positive for the first time since 1996 but warned that a headlong plunge in the dollar would change the outlook.

The government welcomed evidence of manufacturing's recovery, which follows data showing strong growth in the economy in the final quarter of 2003 and robust Christmas spending.

"It confirms that British manufacturing is on the up and poised to take advantage of new growth in the US and opportunities in south-east Asia," said Patricia Hewitt, the trade and industry secretary.

The Bank last raised rates in November, but expectations of a fresh move were already high after official figures indicated the economy grew by 0.9% in the fourth quarter. Adam Cole, an economist at Crédit Agricole Indosuez, said: "There must be an outside chance the MPC will vote for a 50 basis-point hike."